Odds calculator
Lottery Odds Calculator
Enter how many entries you hold, your best estimate of the total entry pool, and how many prizes are drawn, to see your estimated chance of winning at least one.
Next draw
Bhadra 1, 2083
Draws happen on the 1st and 16th of every Nepali month.
Register your eligible bills before this fortnight closes.
Chance of winning at least one
0.499%
Roughly your odds
1 in 200
Expected number of wins
0.0050
This is pure probability math on the numbers you enter — it is not based on any real, published entry-pool size. IRD doesn't publish how many total bills or QR entries are in a given fortnight's draw, so treat the "total entries" field as your own assumption, not a fact.
How this is calculated
This uses the hypergeometric distribution — the exact probability of drawing at least one of your entries when a fixed number of prizes are drawn without replacement from a fixed pool. It answers "if there really were N total entries and K prizes, what would my odds be" — it can't tell you the real odds, since the actual size of each fortnight's entry pool isn't public.
This tool is for illustration only and does not reflect official IRD Gift Program odds, which depend on the real (unpublished) number of entries in each draw.
Related guides
Also chasing a lottery bill?
IRDCoupon's Bill Vault stores your bills and flags a match against every published draw automatically.